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BEIJING, China (CNN) -- North Korea pledged to return to talks concerning its nuclear program, U.S. and Chinese officials said Tuesday, but analysts question whether Pyongyang is serious about disarmament or just adding another feint to a controversy that has persisted since 1993.
U.S. officials, including President Bush, blended optimism and caution Tuesday in reaction to the resumption of the talks, which came after negotiations among North Korean, Chinese and U.S. officials in Beijing.
Speaking in Washington, Bush said he was "very pleased" with the decision, but cautioned that there is still "a lot of work to do" to get North Korea to dismantle its weapons program.
In Beijing, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill described Tuesday's trilateral meeting as "very positive" and said he expects the six-party negotiations to resume in November or December.
But the U.S. envoy stressed there is still a long way to go before the talks begin, and North Korea is notorious for changing its tone quickly. "I have not broken out the cigars and champagne yet, believe me," Hill said.
Indeed, as the reports were coming out of Beijing, North Korea, through its official Korean Central News Agency, warned South Korea not to participate in a U.S.-led plan to search vessels headed for North Korea that are suspected of carrying weapons of mass destruction, according to The Associated Press.
"The South Korean authorities would be well advised to stop their reckless action, pondering over the catastrophic consequences to be entailed by its participation in the ... aggression," a spokesman for the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland said in the KCNA report.
13 years of diplomacy
The nuclear controversy began in 1993, when North Korea announced it was quitting the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which binds signatories to renouncing procurement of nuclear weapons.
But a year later, North Korea and the United States signed an agreement in which Pyongyang pledged to freeze and eventually dismantle its nuclear weapons program in exchange for international aid to build two power-producing nuclear reactors.
In 2000, frustrated by delays in building the plants, North Korea threatened to restart its nuclear program if Washington did not provide compensation for the loss of electricity caused by delays.
In February 2003, North Korea said it was restarting its nuclear facilities, and in August of that year, the United States, North Korea, China, South Korea, Russia and Japan held the first round of the six-party talks to try to resolve the issue.
The coming round would be the sixth of those talks, and the first since November 2005, when Pyongyang quit the fifth round after Washington placed financial restrictions against banks and North Korean companies for their alleged involvement in currency counterfeiting and other illicit activities.
Since that time, North Korea has test-fired missiles that could reach Japan and possibly the United States and conducted an underground nuclear test on October 9.
U.N. takes action
The nuclear test brought a swift response from the United Nations Security Council, which imposed sanctions on North Korea that even long-time ally China supported.
Beijing was embarrassed after Pyongyang went ahead with the test despite Chinese requests it not do so.
Analysts suggested both Washington and Pyongyang had something to gain from an agreement at this time. "The agreement to resume six-party talks was reached because the Bush administration wants to score a diplomatic point ahead of the midterm elections in the United States and North Korea does not want to see China losing face," Yasuhiko Yoshida of the Osaka University of Economics and Law told Reuters.
"The interests of the two sides matched this time. At least it shows that North Korea will not conduct a second nuclear test before the resumption of the six-party talks," Yoshida said.
"I don't think the chaos stemming from North Korea's nuclear test has been fundamentally erased," Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at People's University in Beijing, told Reuters. "I think the potential for disputes between China and the United States and Japan will only escalate since North Korea has increased the flexibility of its policies."
Late Tuesday in Asia, Tokyo was not showing the enthusiasm for a new round of talks that others were. While Japan welcomed the prospect of a new round of talks, it "does not intend to accept North Korea's return to the talks on the premise that it possess nuclear weapons," Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso was quoted as saying by Japan's NHK network in an Associated Press report. A resumption of talks "is conditional on North Korea not possessing nuclear weapons," Aso was quoted as saying.
Meanwhile, U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the sanctions placed on North Korea after the nuclear test will remain in place.
And North Korea has made no promise to stop testing, Hill said.
Bush said Washington will send teams to the region to enforce the current U.N. resolution as well as make sure the upcoming talks are "effective."
Bush said U.S. resolve that North Korea not possess nuclear weapons remains strong, saying result of the talks must be "that we achieve the results we want, which is a North Korea that abandons her nuclear weapons programs and her nuclear weapons in a verifiable fashion in return for a better way forward for her people."
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