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(CNN) -- Republicans were faced Tuesday with the possibility that the war in Iraq, an unpopular president and a series of scandals would thwart their chances of maintaining a grip on Congress.
On the other side of the aisle, Democrats were battling accusations they are soft on national security and the economy. They also are hindered by a propensity to blow elections over the last 12 years.
The war and a series of GOP gaffes may boost Democrats to victory in several elections, and Democrats seem poised to win a majority of of the 36 gubernatorial races across the country for the first time since they were last considered a dominant force in Congress.
Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to take the House, and a net gain of six seats to take the Senate. But even with the wind at their backs -- especially in the House -- one senior Democratic aide warned, "Don't underestimate our ability to blow it."
House of Representatives
Sixteen GOP incumbents in five states are fighting for their political lives in races stretching from the Atlantic seaboard to the Ohio River Valley. The Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Connecticut and Pennsylvania races, say analysts, are the harbinger for whether the Dems can take control of the House for the first time since 1994.
The entire House is up for election.
If Republicans can fend off their Democratic challengers in these five states, they will defy widespread expectations that the House is primed for a changing of the guard.
But the GOP, which holds a 231-201 advantage in the House, will be on the defense, as Democrats are expected to hold all their current seats and possibly take 20 to 36 seats from Republicans.
"Obviously, we have always recognized the steep hill to climb because it's the sixth year of the president's term," said Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman. "At the same time, I think there's momentum."
Recent polls asking Americans which way they plan to vote indicate Republicans are trailing by double digits -- 53 percent to 41 percent, according to the polls' average -- but Mehlman said the gap was narrowing.
Rep. Rahm Emanuel, head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has a different take, saying "there's a lot of energy on the Democratic side."
"It was inevitable that the Republicans at some point would start to kind of come back a little," Emanuel said, but "from early indications of our field operation, I feel strong about it and good about the type of field operation we have."
To keep the House, Republicans must hold 22 of their seats at a time when polls indicate public sentiment is not in their favor. The GOP situation is confounded by scandals and investigations that have put five arguably safe seats in jeopardy, including those formerly held by Reps. Tom DeLay of Texas, Bob Ney of Ohio and Mark Foley of Florida, all of whom resigned and abandoned their re-election bids.
DeLay left the House to defend himself against state-money laundering charges, Ney resigned after pleading guilty to corruption charges and Foley stepped down after acknowledging inappropriate behavior with teenage congressional pages.
Rep. Tom Reynolds of New York also was ensnared in the Foley scandal and faces a tough re-election bid after revealing he learned about Foley's e-mails to a page before they became public.
In suburban Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 10-term Congressman Curt Weldon also finds his chances cloudy after federal agents searched his daughter's home as part of an influence-peddling investigation. Weldon has denied wrongdoing.
But Democrats are not without their scandals, as Rep. William Jefferson of Louisiana seeks re-election while being the subject of a corruption investigation that, most notably, has allegedly unearthed $90,000 in cash in the congressman's freezer. However, even if Jefferson is ousted, the seat is expected to stay in Democratic hands.
The GOP's best hope for stealing seats from Democrats is in Georgia, where a Republican-controlled Legislature changed district boundaries earlier this year to favor their party.
There, Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall is being challenged by former Rep. Mac Collins, who gave up his House seat two years ago in an unsuccessful bid for the Senate. Also, Democratic Rep. Jim Barrow faces former Rep. Max Burns, whom he narrowly ousted from Congress two years ago.
Senate
While polls suggest the Democrats have the edge in the House, they also suggest the Republican grip on the Senate is a little safer -- but that isn't stopping some Democrats from beating their chests.
"On Wednesday morning, the White House is going to wake up and say, 'We have a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate. We've got a problem,' " said Jim Webb, who is locked in a tight race Sen. George Allen, R-Virginia.
Webb, a former Navy Secretary in the Reagan administration whose son is a Marine, has blasted Allen for his support of the Iraq war. Allen also has been bedeviled by allegations that he used a racial slur in college, and by his reference to an Indian-American Webb volunteer as a "macaca," a class of monkey.
Allen has denied using a racial slur -- and that "macaca" was meant as one. He also has expressed confidence in his re-election bid, accusing Webb of trying to learn about Virginia and its values by "listening to a bunch of political consultant buzzards."
Thirty-three Senate seats are at stake, but only nine races are considered competitive, five of which are held by Republicans in states Bush handily carried in 2004.
Endangered are GOP incumbents Mike DeWine of Ohio and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. Late surveys suggest, however, that the GOP is gaining ground in other tight races, including in Rhode Island -- where Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is duking it out Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse -- and in Montana -- where four-term Sen. Conrad Burns is trying to fend off Democratic state Sen. Jon Tester.
The Democrats, meanwhile, face tough fights of their own in New Jersey and Maryland. In the Garden State, Sen. Robert Menendez finds himself in a tough battle against Thomas Kean Jr., son of the former governor; and in the Old Line State, Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin is running against Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele to fill the seat left vacant by retiring Sen. Paul Sarbanes, a Democrat.
In Tennessee, Republicans seem favored to reclaim the seat left vacant by retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker said he's leading in the 900,000 early ballots cast, but Democratic challenger Harold Ford, a five term congressman, said he trusts Tennesseeans will be "voting for change."
Polls indicate the race in Missouri will be a bit tighter, as freshman GOP Sen. Jim Talent and State Auditor Claire McCaskill are pitched in a neck-and-neck battle for the Senate seat.
Both candidates concede that the race is tight, and while Talent says his campaign is "hitting a peak," McCaskill says she is going to campaign hard until the polls close at 7 p.m.
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